Category Archives: Foreign Policy

The Battle for the Soul of Microfinance


Microfinance is going through some major growing pains right now, hitting its first major challenge since it hit the mainstream in 2005 after Muhammad Yunus won the Nobel Peace Prize.  The “silver bullet” of poverty alleviation that brought credit to those previously thought unworthy of a loan has seen an onslaught of criticism for failing to deliver on the lofty goals that its evangelists believed it could achieve (lesson: don’t overpromise).

Studies have shown that the impact of providing credit and Bridging Loans to poor women does not have a dramatic effect on poverty alleviation, and the success stories, at least in recent months, have been trumped by tales of aggressive loan-recovery tactics and suicides among poor borrowers in India.  Portfolios of the Poor, a book written by four development economists with a healthy skepticism about the transformative effects of microfinance but optimism about its marginal impacts, showed that access to credit is actually less important than savings – access to a safe place to keep your money.

The big schism in microfinance since 2008 has been about where to get the money for operations.  On one side, there is a group that believes microfinance must always focus on serving the needs of the poor and resist temptation to exploit borrowers with overly-exorbitant interest rates (I say “overly” because interest rates are, well, exorbitant).  This camp, led by Muhammad Yunus, the spiritual and, until recently, actual leader of the Grameen Bank, condemns a profit motive.  Instead, microfinance institutions (MFIs) should charge interest rates that will cover expenses and will finance expansion efforts.  In other words, MFIs should be financially and operationally sustainable, but nothing more.

Proponents of the other side believe that, for microfinance to achieve its true potential and reach the billions of poor people without access to credit, it must tap into the vast financial coffers of the capital markets.  To do so, microfinance needs to become attract investors with, at the least, a hybrid model focused on financial returns and social impact.  There are still only a handful of MFIs of adequate scale to access the same type of capital that a normal company might access, at commercial rates.

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Commodity Speculation, Rising Food Prices, and Goldman Sachs

Old habits die hard, and the motor patterns in my fingers that brought me to the Drudge Report so many times when I worked in a cubicle in Boston once again led me to page the other day.  Living up to its reputation for sensationalism, it featured a headline recently about the escalation of food prices around the world.  Unfortunately, while Drudge is usually over-the-top, rising food prices are no laughing matter.  In 2008, the rising cost of our daily bread led to food riots around the globe and massive destabilization in developing countries, most prominently in Haiti.  It alerted food-dependent developed countries to a glaring Achilles’ heel, spurring a land grab in Africa that (almost) comically culminated with the South Korean conglomerate Daewoo making a bid for half – yes, half – of the arable land in Madagascar.  So when the next food crisis hits, and hit it will, the developed countries with a foothold may think they are food-secure, until the hungry populations of the food-insecure countries serving as their respective breadbaskets see the fields of gold beyond the fence and decide to Mugabe it for themselves.  Unless, of course, the landowners (read: nations) deploy armed guards to protect these critical investments, resulting in rioting, bloodshed, and, inshallah, the toppling of governments.

And now, it could be happening again.  I sound like Drudge.

Theoretically, commodity prices fluctuate based on the principles of supply and demand.  When the demand for grain exceeds supply, prices go up.  In the movie Trading Places, Randolph and Mortimer Duke, the lovable racist WASPs, try to corner the market for Florida oranges.  They pay Clarence Beeks for an advance copy of the classified crop report, which will determine the price of oranges for the next trading period.  Akroyd and Murphy intercept the report and forge a new version, giving the impression that there will be a shortage of oranges due to a long winter.  On the trading floor, the Dukes’ trader buys as many orange futures as he can, under the assumption that they will become more valuable once the negative forecast for oranges is released.  The other traders see what is happening, and also buy, driving prices up and up.  Akroyd and Murphy begin selling at 120, until the crop report is released.  When the real crop report is released, which says that this year’s orange yields will be high, the price plummets, and Akroyd and Murphy buy all the futures they sold in the morning, becoming millionaires in the process.  This is how commodity trading works.

In reality, this isn’t always the case. Continue reading

Let Them Eat Cash: The New Approach to Food Aid

A few years ago, I used to subscribe to Harper’s Magazine.  The lead article in one of the issues was titled “Let them eat cash: Can Bill Gates turn hunger into profit?”  It seemed interesting, but couldn’t really understand much of it at the time, since I didn’t know anything about food aid policy, or development in general.  Just the other day I met someone who is working with the World Food Program’s Purchase for Progress program out here in Ghana.  She asked me what I thought about the WFP and food aid in general.  So I gave her my typical screed about food aid providing a market for surplus corn and soyabean production in the United States while calling it aid.  And I talked about how flooding the market with low-cost (or no-cost) food may be necessary in the short-term, but is counterproductive in the long-run, since it undermines the competitiveness of the private sector in the areas where it is delivered and leaves the market in a state of atrophy.  The conversation reminded me to go back and re-read the article.  This time, I understand it much better.

The author, Frederick Kaufmann, attended a world summit on hunger and climate change (fitting both into the busy schedule).     Continue reading

Did the Poor Cause the Financial Crisis?

“There are two things that matter in politics. The first is money. I can’t remember the second.” – Mark Hanna

In December, a group calling itself the Republican Commissioners on the Financial Crisis Inquiry released a report titled the “Financial Crisis Primer,” which provides an explanation for economic crisis.  According to the report’s authors, the big lenders, including the government, gave too many high-risk loans as part of a government-directed strategy to increase home ownership in the country.  Because the price of housing never goes down (allegedly), creating a financial environment where everyone can afford to buy a home is a no-brainer, since the asset is guaranteed (almost) to increase in value over time.

Once all the credit-worthy, middle-income customers received loans to buy a house, lenders started to look to low-income population as a viable market.  They started pushing subprime loans with introductory “teaser” rates that would eventual re-adjust and send the person who couldn’t really afford the house in the first place into bankruptcy.  And the driving force behind this whole sequence of events was a social policy to increase asset ownership among the low-income segments of the population, otherwise known as the poor.   This dynamic is explained here in the introduction to the Primer:

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NextBillion Post: Awakening a Sleeping Giant

This is part I of a two-part post that appears on NextBillion today.  I will post part II tomorrow.

If you’ve ever been to the Philippines, you’ve no doubt seen a row of identical tiny stores selling Coca-Cola and laundry detergent. In fact, there are about 630,000 of these sari-sari storesserving the 90 million Filipinos across the country (a little less than one per 100 people), and each one may record less than $10 per day in sales. Each store sells the same single-use household and food products, but buys its inventory from grocery stores in the cities. As a result, the BoP end up paying even more for products and services.

Mark Ruiz and Bam Aquino of MicroVentures recognized the opportunity to consolidate this supply chain by centralizing sourcing and reducing distribution inefficiencies. The result isHapinoy, a franchise that has reached nearly 10,000 sari-sari stores in a few short years.

Hapinoy is an example of a conversion franchising model, which “transforms pre-existing, independently-owned businesses into members of a standardized network.” The company manages its operations and negotiates supplier contracts with NestleUnilever and others from its headquarters in the capital city of Manila.  Products are purchased in bulk and distributed via Hapidelivery to a network of community stores, each of which serves between 50 and 100 “suki” stores (Hapinoy sari-sari stores). The suki stores buy from the community store at a lower cost and sell at a higher margin.

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Nicholas Kristof and the Marketing of Development

The other day I listened to an interview with Nicholas Kristof on the role of storytelling in development and its importance for advancing the cause.  Kristof has received a lot of flak from development bloggers for oversimplifying issues and focusing the narrative around a single, white, typically American protagonist.   In doing so, Kristof misrepresents the problem, which leads his readers to believe that, for example, Western sex tourists are the reason for child prostitution in Cambodia, or diamond mining is the cause of all of the problems in the Congo.  These causes, however, are a) easily understood, and b) resonate with Kristof’s readers on an emotional level.  It is easier to get people fired up about an issue they wouldn’t normally care about when you elicit feelings of empathy and anger about grave injustice.  But once you start to talk about the deeper roots of these problems – the boundary-based ethnic conflicts, the desperation of poverty, and the gangsterism of warlords and army generals – the eyes of the marginally-interested reader begin to glaze over as the words “impossibly complex” and “hopeless” come to his mind.

I agree with Kristof here.   He makes the (good) point that many people make the mistake of dismissing marketing for development causes to be irrelevant or cheap.  In doing so, the issues they support languish without financial or political support from people who either don’t know or don’t care about their cause.  The cause-and-effects of poverty and its ills are impossibly complex.  There is a tendency, I think, among career development people to become increasingly dismissive of anyone or anything that oversimplifies these issues they have spent their lives trying to understand.  But, unfortunately, most people don’t like complexity, and it has a tendency to turn people off an issue.

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Why China’s Model of Development in Africa is Working

The answer to the title of this post is that China is using the same model of development to develop other countries that it used to develop itself.  And China is a shining example of why its own model works.  China has lifted hundreds of millions of its own people out of poverty and grown to be the second-largest economy in the world.  Its growth in GDP is only matched by its increasing global influence around the world – an alternative superpower to deal with.

Every day, on my drive on the highway from Accra to the Eastern region, I see the bridges and roads being built.  Caterpillar trucks and big crews of Ghanaian construction workers being supervised by a Chinese foreman in a floppy hat.  I have heard and read about China in Africa, and its strategic interest in the continent from a natural resource perspective.  I knew they were involved in infrastructure projects, but I didn’t think it would be every single project.

Today I read an article in NextBillion titled “Why Africa is Open for Business.” The article closes with this paragraph:

Probably the greatest challenge resides in the U.S. and the Western world. That challenge is to change the perception of Africa and encourage young entrepreneurs and investors to look at Africa as a place to do business. Business is probably a better way out of poverty than philanthropy. And I can’t wait for Business Schools to lead the way by developing curriculums on business in Africa.

I agree, but there are two things I want to unpack about this statement.   Continue reading

The Next Non-Story About Big Aid

This isn’t surprising:

A $21.7 billion health fund championed by the rich and famous has come under harsh scrutiny amid revelations it’s bleeding money to corruption. But fund officials and outside experts in the field have a stark message for global development: other aid agencies are in much worse shape.

Investigations led by Robert Appleton, a veteran former U.S. federal prosecutor whom Parsons hired last fall to root out corruption, are showing that up to two-thirds of some grants provided by the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria are lost to graft, with much of the money accounted for by forged documents or improper bookkeeping.

The fund rocketed to prominence with the backing of celebrity campaigners like Bono, who see it as an alternative to the bureaucracy of the United Nations.

This is kind of a non-starter for me.  Everyone knows that aid is riddled with inefficiency and corruption.  Here is what Transparency International has to say:

“There’s the need in the developing aid agencies to be accountable,” said Robin Hodess, Transparency International’s director of policy and research. “Sometimes there hasn’t been enough attention to preventing corruption.”

But here is the most interesting part of the article.  The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation – another big donor – has actually funded research projects to show just how badly these organizations lack accountability: Continue reading

Impact Investing: Venture Capital for Do-Gooders Takes Off

The other day a friend put me in touch with a friend of his who had just moved to Accra.  She works the Acumen Fund, a social venture capital fund that invests in promising  entrepreneurs in developing countries.  The use of the adjective “social” is a bit misleading, in the sense that the companies are purely for-profit and do not need to have an explicit social motive guiding the business strategy.  What distinguishes them is the market they serve, termed the base of the pyramid, or BoP for short.  The name is derived from C.K. Prahalad’s books “Fortune at the Bottom of the Pyramid.” These businesses typically serve the poor in some way.  Acumen has invested in agribusinesses and businesses in healthcare, water, and energy.   The broader term for the modus operandi of Acumen Fund and other investment funds is “impact investing.” The unfailingly reliable Wikipedia describes impact investing as “an investment strategy whereby an investor proactively seeks to place capital in businesses that can generate financial returns as well as an intentional social and/or environmental goal.” It is a relatively new concept, and it has taken off in recent years.

So we met up at one of the many Lebanese restaurants in town for a drink and talked about all things development.  There aren’t too many impact investors operating in Ghana, or West Africa in general.  A few local private equity firms and some U.S.-based venture capital funds are the only ones I have come across.  But it is the next big thing in development, which, in general, tends to driven by fads and has an often-changing flavor of the month.  For a few years, microfinance was the darling of the donor communities, as Dr. Muhammad Yunus took that Nobel Peace Prize and ran with it.  But now, microfinance is experiencing its own serious growth pains in its biggest and most dynamic market, India, and has been criticized for being, at best, ineffective, and, at worst, actively counterproductive in alleviating poverty.   Continue reading